Dr. Doron Matza of the 301 analysis platform assesses that the United States is not seeking to topple the Iranian regime, but rather aims to return to a framework of understandings and negotiations. He argues that Israel's participation in a limited US military campaign would be 'a blessing in vain' unless it is aimed at a fundamental strategic change, as was the original goal of Operation Roaring Lion.
Dr. Doron Matza, a member of the 301 analysis platform, published a situation assessment on Saturday morning analyzing the ongoing US-Iran confrontation. According to Matza, the United States is employing a familiar escalation ladder but has a clear red line it does not wish to cross. In contrast, Iran is issuing explicit threats of potential ground operations in neighboring Gulf states.
Matza argues that Washington is no longer threatening to collapse the Iranian state or destroy its infrastructure, as it did before the 2025 'surrender agreement' (the nuclear deal). He asserts that the US is seeking to 'reconnect the plug and socket' — returning to a framework of understandings and negotiations with Iran. Tehran is aware of Washington's cognitive limitations and is able to continue its calculated gamble.
The analyst notes a fundamental gap between Washington and Jerusalem. While Israel participated in Operation Roaring Lion (the joint US-Israel campaign in February 2026) with the aim of toppling the regime in Tehran, that goal was not achieved due to flawed assumptions, according to Matza. Operation Rising Lion (the June 2025 Twelve-Day War) had already removed the nuclear threat. Therefore, he argues, any Israeli participation in a limited US military action would be 'a blessing in vain' unless it is part of a deeper strategic shift.
Matza concludes that Israel should set its own price for partnership with the United States. The Zioneer has previously reported on the US-Iran kinetic exchanges, including the third consecutive night of fire (July 12), the White House dual-track strategy of military response and diplomacy (June 10), and expectations of Iranian retaliation against US bases (June 11).
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