Middle East analyst Hananel Aviv assesses that the Green Zone raids are a selective anti-corruption drive targeting Sunni politicians while sparing Shia militias loyal to Iran, arguing the real test is whom PM al-Zaidi protects.
Middle East analyst Hananel Aviv published an analysis on Monday evening reassessing the dramatic events in Baghdad that began Sunday night. Initially reported as a military coup attempt, the raids by Iraqi special forces in the Green Zone were a sweeping arrest operation targeting senior political and security figures, including Baha al-Nouri, Ziad al-Janabi, Muthanna al-Samarrai, and Mohammed al-Karbouli. The arrests followed the interrogation of former deputy oil minister Adnan al-Jumeili, who exposed a fuel smuggling network that allegedly financed these politicians. Aviv writes that shootouts were not a mutiny but clashes with private security guards resisting the arrests.
The analysis argues that the crackdown is a selective political purge rather than a genuine anti-corruption campaign: most detainees are Sunni power brokers, weakening their bloc's parliamentary leadership bid. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, writes Aviv, is navigating between delivering Washington the 'winning image' against oil oligarchy while avoiding any action against the economic pipelines of Shia militias loyal to Tehran. Aviv describes this as a classic survival strategy — decisiveness only where it does not threaten ties with Iran.
As The Zioneer previously reported (June 28), al-Zaidi escalated into heavy armor to deter militia interference. The White House visit planned for mid-July (The Zioneer, June 16) may hinge on whether the crackdown is seen as substantive or cosmetic.
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