A strategic analyst argues that Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is likely to turn to former U.S. President Donald Trump for support rather than relying on Russian President Vladimir Putin, given Russia's current diminished capacity to assist. The assessment, posted on a defense-focused the source, also casts doubt on the Belarusian military's ability to resist a Ukrainian incursion without severe civilian casualties.
A strategic analyst posted a detailed assessment on a defense-focused the source Friday evening, arguing that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will seek support from former U.S. President Donald Trump rather than his traditional ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin. The assessment notes that Putin's ability to assist Lukashenko is currently limited, and that Belarus's military lacks the conventional strength to stop a Ukrainian advance. The analyst added that while Belarusian guerrilla capabilities should not be underestimated, widespread popular resistance to a Ukrainian incursion is unlikely unless Ukrainian forces commit atrocities against civilians. The post follows a bulletin published earlier Friday in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a one-week ultimatum to Lukashenko to withdraw military equipment from the Ukraine-Belarus border. No official response from Lukashenko or the Belarusian government has been reported, and the assessment remains an individual analyst's view without corroboration from official channels.
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