Dr. Doron Matza of the 301 analysis platform assesses that the Trump administration is advancing two problematic tracks: supplying jet engines to Turkey and facilitating the entry of Syrian jihadist forces under Ahmed al-Sharaa into Lebanon against Hezbollah. He warns these moves constitute a strategic challenge from the Sunni axis, led by Turkey, which Israel must prepare for militarily, diplomatically, and intelligence-wise.
Dr. Doron Matza, a member of the 301 analysis platform, published an assessment on Thursday morning examining two U.S. policy directions he sees as detrimental to Israeli strategic interests.
Matza argues that the Trump administration is, on the one hand, poised to sell jet engines to Turkey — a move he characterizes as shortsighted and focused on narrow transactional benefits — and, on the other hand, considering allowing Syrian jihadist forces under Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Julani) to enter Lebanon to confront Hezbollah, rather than having Israel perform that role.
He describes these two developments as linked by the emergence of a Sunni axis led by Turkey, which he views as a rising competitor to the weakened but recovering Shia axis. Matza warns that in the Syrian context, a jihadist presence near Israel's border facilitated by Washington would come at a price: al-Sharaa would demand Israeli withdrawal from the buffer zone on the Syrian Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, adding to existing U.S. pressure to withdraw from the buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
Matza calls for Israel to begin immediate preparations for a potential decade-long campaign against Turkey, including opening a Turkish desk in IDF Military Intelligence's research division to collect operational intelligence and develop contingency plans. He also expresses hope that a convergence of Israeli, Lebanese, and even Hezbollah interests will foil the Syrian jihadist initiative in Lebanon.
The assessment reflects ongoing strategic debates within Israeli security circles as the U.S. simultaneously engages both the Shia axis (via the Iran MOU process) and the Sunni axis led by Turkey, a NATO member. As The Zioneer has previously reported, the Trump administration has intensively pressured Israel on the Lebanon track and appears to be pursuing broader regional realignments that Israeli analysts view with deep concern.
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