An analysis from the Abu Ali Express channel assesses that Tehran is waiting out President Trump's term, betting it cannot reach a deal with him, while the White House has shifted to a strategy of intensified economic pressure and naval siege over direct military action. The analysis notes that Iran is unlikely to withstand such pressure for 2.5 years, and that from Israel's standpoint, the current state — no deal with Iran and sanctions in place — is ideal, increasing chances of the regime's collapse.
This analysis from Abu Ali Express adds to a growing body of commentary assessing the Iran-US-Israel triangle. The analysis argues that Iran is deliberately stalling, waiting for Trump's term to end, while the US applies maximum economic pressure without a full military campaign. This aligns with previous assessments published by The Zioneer: on June 11, an analysis noted that Iran plays for time while Trump prepares the battlefield for a larger campaign; on July 13, an analysis assessed that US restraint allows Iran to 'lie low' but attrition strategy could pressure the regime. The current analysis emphasizes the Israeli perspective, framing the absence of a deal and the continuation of sanctions as ideal, potentially accelerating regime collapse. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key pressure point, with rising global energy costs as a consequence. The question of who blinks first — Tehran facing economic strangulation or Washington facing global economic fallout — remains open.
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