A strategic commentator argues that President Trump made two similar strategic mistakes — both rooted in underestimating market adaptability to disruption — leading him to accept a humiliating deal with Iran and lift the naval blockade too early, before economic pressure could achieve its full effect.
A Hebrew-language strategic commentator argued Wednesday that President Trump's decision to lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iran and accept a negotiated settlement reflects a repeated failure to understand economic resilience, not a strategic calculation.
The commentator asserts that Trump made the same underestimation twice: first on Iran's ability to withstand economic siege, and then on the global market's capacity to adapt to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In the Iranian case, he argues, the crushing effect of the blockade would have taken at least 9-10 months — not the weeks Trump's economic team promised. Iran's experience with sanctions and societal frugality, he says, made it far more resilient than Western assumptions allowed.
On the Strait of Hormuz, the commentator claims that by the time Trump backed down, the U.S. and its Gulf partners had already offset at least 50% of the blockade's effectiveness through alternative pipelines and naval escort operations, with further adaptation in Asian markets (partial coal and wood transitions in India and China) accelerating. The apocalyptic forecasts of figures like Paul Krugman and Goldman Sachs did not materialize, he argues.
The analysis concludes that Trump's capitulation discarded not only the hard-won military gains against Iran but also the credibility of U.S. power projection globally — calling it a 'historical-scale missed opportunity.' As The Zioneer has reported, the administration had been maintaining pressure despite setbacks and issuing ultimatums as recently as early June, making the reversal especially stark.
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- Internal intake