Israeli political analyst Yaakov Bardugo assessed Sunday morning that the current escalation in the Gulf will not return to a full-scale war, citing US disinterest ahead of the midterm elections. Bardugo predicted a period of tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran.
Israeli political analyst Yaakov Bardugo said Sunday morning that he does not foresee a return to intense war in the Gulf in the near term, predicting instead a period of controlled exchanges of blows. According to Bardugo, the US has no interest in escalating due to the upcoming midterm elections, even if Iran makes provocative moves.
This assessment aligns with Bardugo's previous characterization of the US-Iran dynamic as a managed 'limited exchange of blows,' as The Zioneer reported on June 10. Bardugo's analysis places him among analysts who see the current US posture as de-escalatory, prioritizing domestic political constraints over a full military confrontation with Tehran.
The analyst's framework suggests a prolonged period of calibrated strikes rather than a return to the full-scale operations seen earlier this year. However, Bardugo's own phrasing — 'we will see a period of exchange of blows' — implicitly acknowledges that the region remains volatile, and that a single miscalculation by either side could alter the trajectory.
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