In an analysis Wednesday night, commentator Chananel Aviv assesses that the return of the US naval blockade and the policy of nightly strikes are not deterring Tehran. He argues Iran is prepared for months of controlled exchanges as long as strikes target military sites in southern Iran, and will not give up its strategic card over the Strait of Hormuz unless it is taken by force.
In an analysis published Wednesday night, commentator Chananel Aviv assesses the current US–Iran kinetic confrontation. He notes that the return of the US naval blockade marks a change, but argues that Iran is not deterred and is prepared for months of controlled exchanges as long as strikes target military sites in southern Iran and its coasts. Aviv states that Tehran's strategic red line is the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran will not voluntarily give up this leverage — it would have to be taken by force. The analysis frames the US approach as 'negotiations under fire' with increasing punitive pressure, but Aviv judges that the Iranian leadership is willing to endure this exchange over an extended period.
- StrongCol. (ret.) Darren Cave: Iran understands only the language of force, Hormuz leverage eroding
- StrongYehezkeli: US-Iran skirmishes cementing Iranian control of Strait of Hormuz
- DevelopingAnalyst: Iran will stop attacking tankers in Hormuz after tonight's strikes
- StrongAnalyst: US strikes escalate to Khuzestan towns, Iran expected to widen response
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