Retired US Army Colonel Darren Cave tells NTD that the Iran ceasefire is fragile, as IRGC elements are ordered to continue fighting. He assesses that Hormuz remains Tehran's key card but loses value as Gulf states expand alternative pipelines, and warns that if a deal is not reached within 60 days of the ceasefire, the only remaining solution is force.
Retired U.S. Army Colonel Darren Cave, in an interview with NTD, assessed that the Iran ceasefire is fundamentally fragile, citing a disconnect between the regime leadership in Tehran and elements within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who received orders to continue fighting regardless of political developments. Cave, a former U.S. Army officer, argued that Tehran ideologically still seeks to drag out negotiations to influence U.S. internal politics and project strength to the Iranian public. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Cave described it as Iran's central card but one whose power is diminishing as Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, expand alternative oil pipelines. He stressed that Iran retains a "psychological advantage" — it does not need to attack frequently for the threat to be remembered — but noted that pipeline routes cannot fully replace the volume currently transiting the strait on large vessels. Cave addressed President Trump's statement that the U.S. may need to "finish the job" to end the Islamic Republic, saying Iran only understands the language of force. He argued that the current leadership remains ideologically loyal to the chain of command eliminated in February, and that the military objective should be to degrade IRGC capabilities as much as possible, allowing the Iranian people — possibly with Kurdish assistance — to lead a new revolution, while avoiding a full-scale U.S. ground invasion. Cave warned that if no agreement is reached within the 60-day ceasefire window, the only remaining relevant solution is force.
The interview comes as The Zioneer has reported extensively on the Strait of Hormuz closure and the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire (see related coverage: Iran threatens indefinite Hormuz closure, June 19; IRGC formally closes Strait of Hormuz, June 20; Iran freezes U.S. talks, links resumption to Lebanon ceasefire, June 19).
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Source and signal
- Internal intake