Yair Goldblatt, a security and Middle East analyst, argues that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' strike on a merchant ship and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dealt a severe blow to US deterrence, and questions whether Washington will respond with a decisive turnabout.
Yair Goldblatt, a security and Middle East analyst, published an assessment via X early Sunday warning that the IRGC's strike on a merchant ship and closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely damaged US deterrence. Goldblatt recalls that the last time the Revolutionary Guards hit a ship, it triggered a widespread US military response in southern Iran. He questions whether the current provocation—which he describes as 'a finger in the eye' to Washington—will be sufficient to produce an American turnabout that restores deterrence. The assessment comes minutes after The Zioneer reported, citing a senior US official, that the IRGC had struck a merchant vessel in the strait (01:25 Jerusalem). The IRGC formally declared the waterway closed on June 20, citing US and Israeli violations in Lebanon. Goldblatt's analysis reflects a growing debate in the region over US credibility after weeks of escalating maritime confrontations.
- ConfirmedIRGC threatens imminent retaliation after US strikes near Strait of Hormuz
- DevelopingIRGC threatens to re-close Strait of Hormuz unless it gets sole control guarantees, WSJ reports
- DevelopingUS military strikes Iranian targets near Strait of Hormuz in response to IRGC attack on merchant ship, senior official says
- StrongIRGC announces closure of Strait of Hormuz after Iran's World Cup disqualification
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