An assessment posted Wednesday evening placed the likelihood of Iran conducting military action against a Gulf state by July 31 at 26%, citing the earlier attack on Jordan this morning. The assessment's source and methodology are not specified.
An assessment circulating on Wednesday evening lowered the estimated probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf state by July 31 to 26%, down from earlier unattributed estimates tracked by The Zioneer that placed the odds at 70% by July 17. The new assessment references the earlier attack on Jordan this morning as a factor but does not disclose its source or methodology.
Earlier this month, a senior Israeli security official assessed the chance of war with Iran in the near term at 50%, and a separate unattributed estimate placed the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by end of July at 30%. The regional context remains one of heightened tensions, with ongoing US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure and Iranian retaliatory barrages across the Gulf.
The assessment comes as the July 31 deadline approaches, but remains unverified by official sources. No shift in Iranian or Gulf state military posture has been reported in connection with this specific estimate.
Source and signal
A single-sourced dispatch is never rated Confirmed or Strong. Its Signal strengthens only when a second, independent source corroborates it.
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