Erdogan confirms US promised five F-35s as Trump moves to lift CAATSA sanctions

The long-stalled defense partnership between Washington and Ankara appears to be entering a new phase following a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Speaking alongside the Turkish leader, Trump expressed a willingness to restore Turkey's status within the F-35 program, stating that the U.S. will "consider" the sale. Trump praised the relationship, remarking that Turkey has been "more loyal than we thought" and emphasizing that "we don't need sanctions on friends."

Lifting CAATSA Sanctions

Central to this development is Trump's commitment to remove sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). These measures were originally triggered by Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, a move that led to Ankara's expulsion from the F-35 lightning II program. The removal of these sanctions is viewed by analysts as the primary legal and diplomatic hurdle to resuming high-end military exports to the NATO ally.

Strategic Context and Analysis

While President Erdogan explicitly stated that a promise for five aircraft has been made, the path forward remains complex. The Zioneer Intelligence Desk notes that while the executive branch can move to lift sanctions, the U.S. Congress has historically maintained a skeptical view of Turkish defense acquisitions and may still attempt to block the sale. Trump’s rhetoric suggests a shift toward prioritizing personal diplomacy and NATO cohesion over the previous administration's focus on the S-400 dispute.

Regional Implications

For Israel and the broader Middle East, the return of Turkey to the F-35 program represents a shift in the regional qualitative military edge (QME) landscape. While Turkey is a NATO member, its fluctuating relationship with Jerusalem and its role in regional conflicts remain points of concern for Israeli defense planners. The move also reflects a broader Trump administration strategy of consolidating alliances through defense deals, even as friction persists over other regional issues, such as the ongoing negotiations involving Iran and the Lebanon front.