In a column published Friday, Amit Segal (N12) reports on focus groups that located former coalition voters who have moved to the opposition. According to the column, these voters are unlikely to return to Likud or Religious Zionism, instead considering change-bloc parties as their second option. Segal also analyzes the fragmentation of the Netanyahu bloc and the risk of wasted votes from smaller right-wing parties.
Amit Segal (N12) published a column Friday morning detailing the findings of focus groups commissioned by a major client seeking to understand voters who supported the coalition in 2022 but have since shifted to the opposition. Contrary to the pollster's initial expectation that such voters would be extremely rare, they were found relatively easily. The focus groups revealed that these voters consistently drifted back to the Netanyahu bloc after the October 7 low, peaking at 54 seats, but have been contracting since the end of the Iran war. Crucially, their second voting option is now a change-bloc party, not Likud or Religious Zionism.
Segal analyzes the structural problems of the Netanyahu bloc: the failure of the 'national unity right-wing party' to coalesce, the risk that small right-wing parties (Feiglin, Zelicha, Noam) will waste votes, and the danger that Religious Zionism may again fall below the electoral threshold. He notes that Prime Minister Netanyahu typically begins campaigns by securing the bloc structure, then pivots to voters, but the bloc itself is in a problematic state.
The column comes amid a prolonged political crisis over coalition stability and Haredi draft legislation, with multiple polls showing a decline in the Netanyahu bloc's strength. The Zioneer has previously reported on the bloc's erosion in polls and the emergence of new parties.
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