Analyst Hananel Aviv writes Wednesday that President Trump is failing to grasp a key Middle East dynamic: Iran is not deterred by the threat of war but rather by the perception of strength. Aviv argues that Trump's low-intensity responses and unbacked threats, combined with diplomatic pressure, signal weakness to a regime the president himself called 'invincible in negotiations,' resulting in continuous attacks and extortion attempts.
Commentator Hananel Aviv posted an analysis on Telegram early Wednesday arguing that President Trump fundamentally misreads the Middle East. According to Aviv, Iran is not driven by a fear of war but rather by a calculus of strength and weakness. Because Trump responds with 'low intensity' to provocations, scatters threats without backing them, and broadcasts pressure on the diplomatic front, Aviv says Tehran perceives the US as weak and acts accordingly.
Aviv specifically notes that Trump himself has described the Iranian regime as 'invincible in negotiations,' and argues that projecting weakness against such an adversary invites continuous attacks and extortion attempts.
The analysis comes amid a backdrop of ongoing US-Iran tensions, with the Trump administration engaged in a dual-track approach of military strikes and diplomatic outreach. As The Zioneer reported in June and July, several analysts have offered similar assessments — Yoni Ben Menachem argued that Iran interprets Trump's push for a deal as a sign of desperation, and Noam Amir questioned whether the president's military pressure campaign is tactical rather than strategic. As of this writing, there is no immediate operational development; the assessment represents a commentator's view.
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