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Analysts: Iran sees Trump deal as leverage, not capitulation — regime exploiting internal US divisions

The Zioneer Intelligence Desk
Analysts: Iran sees Trump deal as leverage, not capitulation — regime exploiting internal US divisions

Primary source Internal intake · 1 reviewed intake signal · Desk window 13:14

TL;DR

Commentators interviewed by NTD News offer starkly different assessments of the emerging US-Iran agreement. Middle East analyst Xian Samy argues President Trump has lost credibility with the Iranian people, and that the regime is exploiting negotiations alongside internal divisions between Trump and Vice President Vance to stall. Conversely, Heritage Foundation security analyst Andrew Harding says Trump's deal ensures stability and a non-nuclear Iran, with the option to reimpose economic and military pressure. Publisher Shahrazad Ghanai (Epoch Times Persian edition, in exile) says the deal has sparked heated debate among regime insiders, many of whom see it as a U.S. surrender, while ordinary Iranians view it with frustration, expecting sanctions relief to fund proxies rather than domestic reconstruction.

01 · THE DISPATCH

A roundtable of commentators published Thursday by NTD News — an English-language network — reveals deep divisions in assessments of the U.S.-Iran agreement framework that President Trump has advanced in recent weeks.

Middle East analyst Xian Samy argues that Trump has lost the trust of the Iranian people by promising to aid them while now negotiating with the ayatollahs' regime. Samy contends that the regime uses the talks to signal to Iranians: 'The America you trusted has just become our partner.' The analyst warns that Tehran is deploying multiple levers of pressure — the Strait of Hormuz, the European Union, and Gulf states — while deliberately stalling by exploiting tensions between Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, whom he says is seeking to build popularity within the Republican Party.

In contrast, Andrew Harding, a security analyst at the Heritage Foundation, frames the agreement as a guarantor of regional stability and a guarantee that Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons. Harding says Trump retains the option to reimpose economic and military pressure as he did in operations 'Economic Fury' and 'Epic Fury' if Tehran fails to comply. He expects the memorandum to lead to a broader agreement that would also include Israel.

Shahrazad Ghanai, publisher of the Persian edition of Epoch Times living in exile, reports that the deal has sparked fierce debate among regime insiders and supporters. She says senior regime figures view the deal as a U.S. capitulation. Among the Iranian public, Ghanai describes frustration: based on past experience, citizens expect funds freed by sanctions relief to flow to regional proxy forces rather than to domestic reconstruction. Ghanai acknowledges that if Iran genuinely abandons its nuclear ambitions and focuses on improving Iranians' lives, it would be an unprecedented achievement by Trump, but she fears the regime will squander the opportunity as it has in the past.

The Zioneer has previously reported extensively on the emerging framework, including Trump's military ultimatum (June 8), his claim that Iran 'wants a deal more than I do' (June 11), Iran state media signaling a high likelihood of approval (June 11), and reports of internal Iranian turmoil over the deal (June 15).

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