Middle East diplomats assess that a breakthrough in Gaza ceasefire negotiations is improbable before Israeli elections in the fall, according to a report. They say Prime Minister Netanyahu's cooperation with the Trump administration's framework is diminishing as campaigning intensifies, and fear he may renew the war. A US official insists Israel can be brought on board if Hamas agrees to disarm first.
The report, circulated in diplomatic circles and picked up by Israeli media, paints a bleak picture for a near-term Gaza ceasefire. Key points from diplomats include the assessment that Prime Minister Netanyahu, facing an election campaign in the fall, is increasingly distancing himself from the Trump administration's framework to avoid political backlash from his right-wing base. They fear that without a diplomatic breakthrough, Netanyahu may opt to renew military operations in Gaza. The report does not specify which diplomats or the exact source of the assessment, but a US official cited in the same report insists that Israel can be brought into the framework if Hamas first agrees to disarm. This condition echoes the Israeli and US position that any long-term arrangement must include demilitarization. The Zioneer has previously reported on stalled talks, Hamas's progress reports from Cairo on Phase 2, and Israel's halt of humanitarian aid as leverage. The current assessment suggests the diplomatic window is narrowing as the election season approaches, though a renewed war scenario remains a point of concern among mediators.
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