Ariel Kahana of Israel Hayom argues that once Gadi Eisenkot equals Naftali Bennett in polls, a large swing toward the former IDF chief is expected, potentially putting Eisenkot ahead of Likud and improving his chances of forming a coalition if neither bloc reaches 61 recommendations. Kahana also predicts a new party led by Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, and Ayelet Shaked will become the kingmaker, likely imposing a unity government.
In a long post on his the source this morning (10:17 Jerusalem), Ariel Kahana, a prominent columnist for Israel Hayom, offered three political predictions based on his reading of weekend polls.
First, Kahana argues that once former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot matches Naftali Bennett in the polls — a trend that recent surveys, as The Zioneer reported, already show Eisenkot tying Bennett at 20 seats in an N12 poll on June 11 — a massive swing toward Eisenkot is likely to follow. If that happens, Kahana predicts Eisenkot would leap ahead of Likud, dramatically increasing his chances of receiving the mandate to form a government if neither the right-wing nor the center-left bloc reaches the threshold of 61 recommendations from party leaders. This builds on earlier polling that showed Likud dropping to 22 seats and the right-wing bloc losing ground since the June 5 hostage rescue.
Second, Kahana expects a new party composed of Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, and Ayelet Shaked to emerge as a kingmaker. He believes such a party will certainly be formed, though its exact composition may shift slightly. According to Kahana, if Erdan has his way, he would force a unity government. If Eisenkot reaches 61 seats and Likud refuses to join him, this party would serve as the right-wing ballast of the next coalition.
Third, Kahana says that despite not yet showing in most polls, there are good reasons to think that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's concessions to the Haredi parties this week will push him back below the electoral threshold. In that scenario, Kahana asserts, the Netanyahu bloc would certainly not reach 61 seats.
None of these predictions are established fact; they represent one journalist's assessment based on polling data and his understanding of political dynamics.
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