Three former senior intelligence officials and analysts from the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs assess that the new US strategic posture — including engagement with Iran — demands that Israel plan for a period of reduced American backing and focus on self-reliance, renewed dialogue with Syria, and firmness against Hezbollah.
The Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs (JCFA) published Friday afternoon three assessments by senior analysts addressing the implications of the evolving U.S. policy toward Iran and the region.
Shagiv Assouline, a former Mossad senior official and researcher at JCFA, said that "U.S. policy has shifted at this point in time, and Israel must recognize this." He stressed that "Israel must remember it should rely first and foremost on itself." Assouline assessed that Iran has successfully positioned itself in the regional consciousness as having stood up to both the United States and Israel, and that the coming months until the U.S. midterm elections will be critical for reshaping American policy.
Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a former senior IDF intelligence officer and senior researcher at JCFA, offered a different angle — urging Israel to reexamine the channel of dialogue with Syria. "It's time to settle matters with Ahmad al-Sharaa. He always wanted to negotiate security arrangements with Israel. In my opinion, an agreement with Syria can be reached," Neriah said. He noted that Hezbollah makes clear it does not intend to disarm, necessitating broader regional solutions, and recalled that advanced contacts between Israel and Syria — including economic dimensions — took place as early as 2025. Renewing that dialogue could create new leverage against Hezbollah, he assessed.
Dr. Dan Diker, president of JCFA, warned of a clear Iranian strategy behind recent developments: driving a wedge between Jerusalem and Washington by casting Israel as an obstacle to regional accommodation. "The most dangerous thing right now is the Iranian attempt to drive a bloody wedge between Israel and the United States. That is exactly the goal of the Iranian regime," Diker said. He argued that the combination of economic pressure on the U.S. administration and the desire to prevent a global energy crisis has created a new reality, but Israel must continue to stand by its security interests — including maintaining freedom of action against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
All three assessments come amid ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic moves and reported American pressure on Israel regarding its posture in southern Lebanon, as The Zioneer has reported in recent days.
2 developments
- StrongIsraeli analyst warns US weakness emboldens Iran, urges strength over diplomacy
- DevelopingIRGC-affiliated analyst warns Tehran understands it cannot fight Israel without US involvement
- StrongJerusalem Center analysts warn US-Iran deal provides tactical pause, not peace
- DevelopingAnalysis: Goldblatt warns Israel against succumbing to US diplomatic pressure on Lebanon
Source and signal
- Internal intake