Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs director Sagiv Steinberg published an analysis arguing the US-Iran framework agreement provides Tehran with strategic breathing room without dismantling its nuclear program, halting its ballistic missile project, or stopping its support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias. He warns that China is learning from the episode that economic leverage can pressure Washington, and that Israel may have to act again if Iran uses the pause to rearm, advance its nuclear program, or reinforce its proxies.
Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs director Sagiv Steinberg has published a new analysis arguing that the US-Iran framework agreement offers Tehran a strategic pause without addressing core Israeli security concerns. In the article, Steinberg writes that the deal does not dismantle Iran's nuclear program, does not halt its ballistic missile project, and does not curb Iranian support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias.
"Iran stood before the most powerful nation in the world and emerged with an agreement that strengthens its regional influence," he writes. Steinberg also warns that China is drawing lessons from the developments and understands that economic leverage can be used to pressure Washington.
As The Zioneer reported at 12:33, three Jerusalem Center analysts earlier issued similar assessments, framing the deal as a tactical pause rather than a diplomatic breakthrough. Steinberg's piece reinforces that line, adding a warning about China's strategic calculus.
He emphasizes that "the Shia axis has been weakened but not defeated," and warns that if Iran uses the time it has gained to rearm, advance its nuclear program, or strengthen its proxies, Israel will be forced to act again. The analysis leaves open whether the deal's implementation could constrain Israel's military freedom of action against the Iranian axis.
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