The Wall Street Journal reports that US intelligence has revised its assessment and now believes Russian President Vladimir Putin will test NATO resolve with a limited attack against an ally in the coming years. The previous assessment was that he would not attempt such action while the war in Ukraine continues. The revision follows incidents including a Russian cruise missile that struck Poland and Russian drones that entered Romanian airspace. Scenarios under consideration include a cyberattack, deployment of armed forces without insignia, or a limited ground incursion on NATO's eastern border.
The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. intelligence has revised its assessment of Russian intentions, now estimating that President Vladimir Putin is likely to test NATO's resolve with a limited attack against one of the alliance's members in the coming years. The previous assessment held that Putin would not undertake such action while the war in Ukraine continues. The shift follows several incidents that raised concerns in Washington, including a Russian cruise missile that struck Polish territory and Russian drones that entered Romanian airspace.
Specific scenarios being evaluated by U.S. intelligence include a cyberattack against a NATO member, the deployment of armed forces without official insignia to seize limited territory, or a limited ground incursion on the alliance's eastern border. U.S. officials are examining whether Moscow intends to escalate its activity against European countries in the near term, fearing that Putin may become more dangerous as the war in Ukraine pressures him into a corner.
The Zioneer has previously reported on related warnings. In July, Polish media reported that the United States warned Warsaw that Russia was preparing an armed attack on Polish soil to test NATO resolve. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in July that Putin may target a NATO member by 2027 if his goals in Ukraine are achieved. A security assessment published by The Zioneer in July noted that Putin is likely to escalate the war in Ukraine and reject peace negotiations. The new WSJ report adds a specific timeline and scenarios to these earlier assessments, though the assessment remains classified and is based on multiple intelligence channels.
- StrongPolish media: US warned Warsaw that Russia is preparing armed attack on Polish soil to test NATO resolve
- StrongSecurity assessment: Putin likely to escalate war in Ukraine, reject peace negotiations
- DevelopingZelensky warns Putin may expand war beyond Ukraine, potentially target NATO country in 2027
- ConfirmedU.S. official: Trump to discuss ending Ukraine war with Putin, meet Zelensky at NATO summit
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