Israel Hayom Poll: Likud Leads with 23 Seats, Yesh Atid Follows with 22

The latest survey results reflect a highly competitive environment between the two largest parties. Behind Likud (23) and Yesh Atid (22), the National Unity party (referred to as "Bejachad") stands at 13 seats. The newly formed "The Democrats" party secures 10 seats, while Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit are tied at 9 seats each.

Coalition and Opposition Breakdown

According to the data, the Haredi parties maintain their stable presence, with United Torah Judaism receiving 8 seats and Shas 7. In the Arab sector, Ra'am is projected to win 6 seats, while the Hadash-Ta'al alliance stands at 5. At the lower end of the threshold, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and the "Beit Tzioni" list both hover at 4 seats each.

Political Context

These figures come amid a period of significant shifts in the opposition. As The Zioneer reported earlier this summer, previous polls from Kan 11 and N12 in June showed a surge for Gadi Eisenkot, who at times overtook other opposition figures to challenge the Likud's dominance. The current Israel Hayom data suggests a stabilization of the Likud at 23 seats—a figure consistent with several surveys conducted over the past two months—while Yesh Atid has closed the gap to a single mandate.

Outlook

The results underscore the continued difficulty for either major bloc to secure a clear 61-seat majority without significant realignment. The narrow one-seat gap between Netanyahu's Likud and Lapid's Yesh Atid indicates that the identity of the largest party remains a fluid contest as the political system navigates ongoing security and legislative tensions.