The Lead
A new political survey published Thursday evening by Israel Hayom and pollster Dudi Hasid shows the Likud party maintaining a narrow lead with 23 seats, followed closely by Yesh Atid at 22. The poll highlights a fragmented political landscape, with the current coalition bloc reaching 51 mandates compared to 58 for the opposition (including Tropper), and 11 seats for Arab-majority parties.
The latest survey results reflect a highly competitive environment between the two largest parties. Behind Likud (23) and Yesh Atid (22), the National Unity party (referred to as "Bejachad") stands at 13 seats. The newly formed "The Democrats" party secures 10 seats, while Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit are tied at 9 seats each.
Coalition and Opposition Breakdown
According to the data, the Haredi parties maintain their stable presence, with United Torah Judaism receiving 8 seats and Shas 7. In the Arab sector, Ra'am is projected to win 6 seats, while the Hadash-Ta'al alliance stands at 5. At the lower end of the threshold, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and the "Beit Tzioni" list both hover at 4 seats each.
Political Context
These figures come amid a period of significant shifts in the opposition. As The Zioneer reported earlier this summer, previous polls from Kan 11 and N12 in June showed a surge for Gadi Eisenkot, who at times overtook other opposition figures to challenge the Likud's dominance. The current Israel Hayom data suggests a stabilization of the Likud at 23 seats—a figure consistent with several surveys conducted over the past two months—while Yesh Atid has closed the gap to a single mandate.
Outlook
The results underscore the continued difficulty for either major bloc to secure a clear 61-seat majority without significant realignment. The narrow one-seat gap between Netanyahu's Likud and Lapid's Yesh Atid indicates that the identity of the largest party remains a fluid contest as the political system navigates ongoing security and legislative tensions.
2 developments
- The Zioneer Intelligence Desk
- News 16 poll: Eisenkot tops Likud 21–18 as opposition bloc leads coalition 53–52Editorially linked
- Kan 11 poll: Eisenkot surges past Bennett for first time, 21 vs 17 seatsEditorially linked
- N12 poll: Eisenkot overtakes Bennett, closes to within one seat of LikudEditorially linked
- Netanyahu wins coalition vote by six votesEditorially linked
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