News 16 poll: Eisenkot tops Likud 21–18 as opposition bloc leads coalition 53–52

Survey Results and Bloc Dynamics

The latest figures from News 16 reflect a significant shift in voter sentiment, placing Gadi Eisenkot's party at the forefront of the Israeli political map with 21 mandates. This marks the first time in News 16's polling that Eisenkot has overtaken the Likud, which currently stands at 18 seats. The survey further details a fragmented Knesset, with the opposition bloc holding 53 seats against the coalition's 52. When including the Arab-majority parties, which account for 11 seats in this poll, the total anti-Netanyahu camp reaches a potential 64 mandates.

Additional parties captured in the survey include a joint list of Zalicha and Hendl, which crosses the threshold with 4 seats. The coalition's figure of 52 seats reportedly includes the 'Winter' party, suggesting a consolidation of right-wing and religious factions that still falls short of a 61-seat majority.

Context of Political Instability

This poll arrives as the governing coalition faces persistent internal friction. As The Zioneer reported earlier, the coalition has navigated periods of significant instability, particularly regarding Haredi demands over draft legislation and the state budget. While Prime Minister Netanyahu has previously managed to secure narrow legislative victories—such as a six-vote margin in late July—the consistent rise of Eisenkot in various media polls suggests a shifting tide in public suitability for the premiership.

Eisenkot, who launched his formal election campaign earlier this summer, has positioned himself as a stabilizing alternative, focusing on national security resilience and the needs of reserve families. His ascent follows a trend seen in other major outlets; for instance, an N12 survey in August showed him reaching 24 seats, while Kan 11 previously placed him at 22.

Analysis and Outlook

The narrow one-seat gap between the primary blocs (53 to 52) underscores the fragility of the current political alignment. The inclusion of the Zalicha-Hendl list at 4 seats introduces a potential wildcard for future coalition building, while the 11 seats held by Arab parties remain the decisive factor in preventing a right-wing majority.

For the Israeli public, these results indicate that despite the coalition's ability to maintain functional governance in the short term, the long-term electoral trend favors a realignment around centrist security figures. The Zioneer will continue to monitor whether this momentum for Eisenkot translates into a formal parliamentary shift or if the Likud can recover its traditional lead as security realities evolve.