Dr. Doron Matza of the 301 analysis platform assesses that the measured US strikes in southern Iran and Iranian responses are part of a coordinated 'rival cooperation' pattern, allowing both sides to avoid full war while maintaining dialogue. He warns that the Trump administration is moving toward supplying F-35s to Turkey and building a Sunni axis that poses a strategic threat to Israel, reminiscent of the failed Israeli strategy with Palestinian adversaries.
Dr. Doron Matza, a senior analyst at the 301 platform, published a wide-ranging situation assessment on Wednesday morning that portrays the current US-Iran dynamics as a managed "cooperation between rivals" — a pattern where both sides engage in calibrated strikes that allow them to demonstrate resolve while avoiding a full-scale war. According to the analysis, the measured US airstrikes in southern Iran and the similarly measured Iranian responses are part of an old-new game in the Middle East, where the two tired players cooperate to maintain stability even as they exchange blows.
Matza warns that the Trump administration's policies are increasingly empowering a Sunni axis led by Turkey, which he argues is not fundamentally different from the Shiite axis that was severely damaged in the war but not yet defeated. He notes that the expected meeting in Ankara on July 7 produced principled understandings, including the eventual delivery of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey — a move that signals a shift in US regional posture.
The analyst also connects the Lebanon and Gaza fronts to this broader geopolitical picture. Iranian demands for Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon are being raised, and Matza assesses that Hamas's maneuvers in Gaza are designed to manipulate the United States — the weak link in the system — into pressuring Israel to reduce its control in the Strip.
The analysis concludes with a somber historical parallel: the pattern of "cooperation between rivals" resembles the Israeli strategy toward Palestinian adversaries, which Matza says ended poorly. If the current US-Iran dynamic follows the same trajectory, he suggests Jerusalem would not shed a tear.
As The Zioneer has previously reported, the US and Iran have engaged in a series of strikes and counter-strikes since early June, with diplomatic channels reportedly remaining open despite the kinetic exchanges.
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