The Zioneer assesses the tripartite defense agreement signed Friday between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan as a 'fictitious alliance' of threatened regimes, reflecting desperation rather than genuine strategic might. The analysis notes the pact was signed amid Saudi briefings that the kingdom expects a major attack, and may soon face its first test.
The Zioneer has published a critical analysis of the tripartite defense agreement signed early Friday between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, characterizing the pact as a 'fictitious alliance' of threatened regimes. The analysis, published Friday afternoon, argues that the agreement reflects strategic distress rather than strength, pointing to Saudi Arabia's abandonment by the United States, Turkey's failure to secure advanced aircraft or 'Euro-union' integration, and Pakistan's marginal role. The analysis notes that the pact was signed amid Saudi briefings indicating the kingdom expects a major attack, possibly from Houthi or Iranian-aligned forces, and that the defense agreement may soon face its first real test.
The analysis follows a series of reports tracked by The Zioneer throughout the early morning hours of Friday. At 03:03 Jerusalem, Reuters reported that two sources confirmed the three countries would sign a joint defense agreement. Shortly after, Turkish media reported that President Erdogan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif would sign a trilateral security cooperation agreement in Jeddah. A Turkish security source later confirmed the signing during a leaders' summit. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and Army Chief Munir met with the Saudi Crown Prince in Mecca ahead of the signing. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry officially confirmed the signing, and the pact was revealed to include a mutual defense clause stipulating that an attack on one is an attack on all. President Erdogan arrived in Mecca for the signing ceremony.
As The Zioneer reported earlier this week, Saudi Arabia has been preparing for imminent attacks by Houthis and pro-Iranian militias, with intelligence reports indicating threats to Saudi ports and energy infrastructure. The kingdom announced a 14-nation maritime coalition to protect Red Sea shipping, including Turkey and Pakistan. Axis of Resistance channels have expressed concern that the pact is directed against Iran and its proxies, as The Zioneer reported on Friday morning.
What remains open: The analysis is a critical assessment of the pact's strategic value, and its first test has yet to materialize. The analysis notes that Saudi Arabia expects a major attack, but it is unclear whether the mutual defense clause will be invoked or how the alliance will function in practice. The pact's impact on Saudi-Israel normalization, which the analysis suggests may be reduced, also remains uncertain.
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