Israeli analyst Hananel Aviv argues that Syria under President Ahmad al-Sharaa (al-Julani) is pursuing a tactical agreement with Israel to buy time for military rebuilding, and that al-Julani's apparent moderation is a facade. Aviv points to al-Julani's history with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, his use of the name 'al-Julani' to signal intent on the Golan, and the appointment of former jihadists to key posts, warning that the ultimate goal is to reclaim the Golan and Jerusalem.
Israeli analyst Hananel Aviv warned in a Telegram post on Monday evening that Syria under President Ahmad al-Sharaa (al-Julani) is pursuing a peace agreement with Israel solely as a tactical measure to rebuild its military and later attack the Jewish state. Aviv argued that al-Julani's strategy mirrors his prior modus operandi — a ceasefire to unite jihadist factions followed by a blitz offensive, as seen in the 2024 overthrow of the Assad regime and earlier campaigns against Kurdish forces.
Aviv noted that al-Julani's organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham still maintains the name 'Syria' in its full title, which includes parts of Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel, and that al-Julani's adopted name itself derives from the Golan Heights. He claimed that most key government and military positions are held by former members of Jabhat al-Nusra, HTS, and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, suggesting the regime remains ideologically aligned with Al-Qaeda and Hamas.
The analysis follows earlier reports by The Zioneer: at 11:32 today, security analyst Yair Goldblatt argued that Arab states use peace deals as tactical cover and warned that al-Julani is a 'terror man,' not a partner. A separate analysis published at 09:21 today similarly argued that Syria is the country preparing for war after tactical concessions.
Aviv concluded that al-Julani is willing to normalize relations with Israel only to gain time to rebuild Syria, prepare a plan to conquer the Golan, and ultimately capture Jerusalem as part of a global Islamic caliphate.
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