Middle East analyst Yoni Ben Menachem assesses that Iran is not digesting the US-Iran memorandum of understanding but believes it can outlast Presidents Trump and Netanyahu politically, according to a post on his channel. He argues Tehran is playing for time, confident that defeating both leaders at the ballot box will allow it to return to the nuclear bomb unimpeded.
The Zioneer has been tracking the emerging US-Iran diplomatic track closely, with recent coverage noting divergent assessments of President Trump's strategy. Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Middle East analyst whose work is frequently cited by Israeli media, now offers a pointed assessment on the internal thinking in Tehran.
Ben Menachem argues that the Iranian regime sees the current moment not as a diplomatic breakthrough but as an opportunity to buy time. He asserts that two critical errors by Trump — his handling of the negotiations and the timing of the deal — have given Iran confidence. In his telling, Tehran is certain it can engineer the political defeat of Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Knesset and President Trump in the November US elections, after which it would face a less formidable leadership and be freer to pursue its nuclear ambitions.
This analysis aligns with a pattern The Zioneer's Intelligence Desk has identified in recent days from multiple Israeli commentators: the view that Iran perceives American eagerness for a deal as weakness. Commentator Yair Goldblatt and journalist Noam Amir (Channel 14) have each written in recent days that the emerging framework leaves critical questions unanswered and that Iran is not genuinely interested in a final agreement. Ben Menachem's analysis is the latest to suggest that the gap between Washington's sense of progress and Tehran's actual posture may be wide.
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