With 99.55% of votes counted in Brazil's presidential election, President Lula has narrowed Flavio Bolsonaro's lead to 2.7% — an estimated 2.4 million votes — according to The Zioneer. The top two candidates will now face a runoff on October 25.
With 99.55% of votes counted in Brazil's presidential election, right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro's lead over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowed to 2.7% — an estimated 2.4 million votes — ensuring the race will proceed to a runoff on October 25, according to data from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court monitored by The Zioneer.
Early returns counted shortly after polls closed on Sunday evening showed Bolsonaro with a commanding lead: at 23:57 Jerusalem with 7.5% of ballots tallied, he stood at 50.7% against Lula's 41%. By 00:34 Monday, after 20% of votes were counted, Bolsonaro's share rose to 51.17%. However, as counting progressed, his advantage steadily eroded. At 01:00, with 47.2% counted, he held 50.2%; by 01:28, with 64.81% tallied, his lead fell to 49.58%, below the 50% threshold needed for a first-round victory. At 01:52, with approximately 85% counted, the race was confirmed to be heading to a runoff, with Bolsonaro at 48.5% and Lula at 43.5%. Later tallies at 99% and above showed the gap tightening further to the current 2.7%.
Bolsonaro, who has pledged to restore diplomatic ties with Israel and move Brazil's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, outperformed most pre-election polls that had Lula leading. The runoff on October 25 will determine whether Brazil returns to a pro-Israel stance under Bolsonaro or continues the more adversarial posture of the Lula administration, which has aligned Brazil with the BRICS bloc. The Zioneer has previously reported on Bolsonaro's platform and the polarized electoral landscape.
With only a small fraction of ballots remaining uncounted, the final margin may shift slightly, but the second-round matchup is now set. The outcome will have significant implications for Brazil-Israel relations and the broader geopolitical alignment in South America.
8 developments
- StrongNetanyahu congratulates Flavio Bolsonaro on first-round victory, voices hope for Israel-Brazil ties
- DevelopingNew Brazil poll shows Flavio Bolsonaro closing gap to tie with Lula ahead of October election
- StrongMassive pro-Bolsonaro crowds take to streets on Brazil election day
- StrongBrazil's Lula says he expects Trump not to interfere in Brazil's presidential election
Source and signal
- Open-source intake