According to an analysis from the Saleh Desk channel, Iran has begun attacking merchant vessels in the southern Strait of Hormuz shipping lane near Oman to enforce protection payments. The analysis suggests Tehran concluded President Trump is weak and will escalate demands unless the US demonstrates resolve.
The Saleh Desk channel, an Israeli analyst outlet with sources in the defense establishment, published a post early Sunday arguing that Iran has moved from accepting the nuclear deal to actively attacking merchant shipping in the southern Strait of Hormuz. According to the analysis, Tehran is compelling ships to pay protection fees for passage through the northern lanes under Iranian control, while striking vessels in the southern route near Oman to enforce compliance.
The post claims the US has responded with measured strikes inside Iran but is now facing missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. The analyst asserts that Iran's leadership has concluded President Trump is weak — a calculation the analyst warns will lead to escalating extortion unless the US demonstrates credible resolve quickly.
This assessment comes amid a broader escalation window documented in The Zioneer's recent coverage. On June 27, The Zioneer reported an Iranian strike on a vessel off Oman and the US vowing to keep Hormuz open (SAME-THREAD). Previous reporting noted US strikes on Iranian coastal missile depots and Iran's pattern of retaliating by striking Gulf allies rather than Israel directly. The channel's analysis is unattributed and represents the author's assessment, not an official Israeli or US confirmation.
2 developments
- DevelopingUS strikes prioritize Strait of Hormuz freedom of navigation, sources say
- DevelopingIranian news agency: US strikes hit 7 sites on Iran's southern coast
- DevelopingIran loses bargaining power as Gulf states bypass it via Oman, analyst says
- DevelopingIran claims it attacked enemy forces near Strait of Hormuz
Source and signal
- Internal intake