According to a report by journalist Tamir Morag, Israeli intelligence assesses that the majority of Iran's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium is buried deep in the tunnels struck at the Isfahan nuclear site and in the rubble of the Fordow facility. Israel and the US are monitoring the sites, and the assessment holds that Iran cannot extract the material without detection, which would allow Western forces to thwart any attempt. The assessment is not absolute, with no 100% certainty.
A new Israeli intelligence assessment, reported by journalist Tamir Morag on Wednesday evening, provides specific locations for the bulk of Iran's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium. According to the assessment, the material is buried deep in the tunnels that were struck at the Isfahan nuclear site and in the rubble of the Fordow facility. This adds location detail to the assessment first reported at 20:45 Jerusalem by Channel 14, which stated that Israeli intelligence assesses Iran cannot retrieve the enriched uranium without detection. The current assessment holds that extraction is impossible without detection, but sources note there is no 100% certainty.
The earlier assessment, published at 20:45 Jerusalem, was the first in this thread. It reported that Israeli intelligence assessed Iran cannot retrieve the uranium from buried tunnels without US or Israeli detection, and that the IRGC's refusal to remove the material raises the risk of a full-scale military confrontation. Prior to that, on June 13, The Zioneer reported assessments (at 10:52 and 11:14 Jerusalem) that most of Iran's 60% enriched uranium was likely located in destroyed tunnels at the Isfahan site. Also on June 13, CNN reported, citing five US intelligence sources, that Iran had collapsed tunnels and laid mines to secure its stockpile of nearly half a ton of highly enriched uranium. These earlier reports are consistent with the current assessment that the material is now deeply buried and inaccessible.
The assessments unfold against the backdrop of extensive Israeli and US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities in recent months, which targeted the Isfahan enrichment complex and the Fordow facility. As The Zioneer reported on June 10, Tehran has been deliberating over relinquishing its 460 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium amid international pressure. President Trump stated on June 18 that the uranium is 'buried safely underground' and can be retrieved later. An analysis by GNS, reported on July 10, argued that standard assessments focusing only on the 60% stockpile underestimate Iran's nuclear potential by ignoring the 20% and 5% stockpiles.
The assessment is not absolute, with sources emphasizing no 100% certainty. It remains unclear whether Iran might attempt extraction despite the risk of detection, and what the precise threshold for Western intervention would be. The Israeli intelligence community continues to monitor both sites.
2 developments
- DevelopingAssessment: Most 60%-enriched uranium found in destroyed tunnels at Isfahan nuclear site
- StrongIran collapses tunnels, lays mines to shield near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile, CNN reports
- DevelopingSatellite imagery shows Isfahan nuclear facility tunnel entrances still buried under rubble a year after strikes
- DevelopingGNS analysis: Iran's nuclear potential underestimated over overlooked 20% and 5% enriched uranium stockpiles
Source and signal
- Internal intake