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Statecraft · Dispatch · PoliticalStrong

N12 poll: Eisenkot ties Bennett, both at 20 seats; Likud drops to 22

The Zioneer Intelligence DeskUpdated 21:41

Primary source Internal intake · 3 reviewed intake signals · Desk window 21:35–21:41

TL;DR

A new Channel 12 poll by Amit Segal shows Gadi Eisenkot tying Naftali Bennett at 20 seats each, while Likud falls to 22. The results mark a rapid shift from just two polls ago, when Bennett led the opposition alone.

01 · THE DISPATCH

A Channel 12 survey by Amit Segal published at 21:33 Jerusalem time shows Likud dropping to 22 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot (National Unity) and Naftali Bennett (New Right) are tied at 20 seats each. The results mark the first time in this polling cycle that Bennett has not held the opposition lead alone, and represent a steep fall for Likud from the 30 seats recorded in an i24 poll published just minutes earlier at 21:29 — though differences in sample and methodology may account for the gap.

This update is the fourth in a rapid sequence of evening polls. At 21:14, The Zioneer reported a Channel 14 survey (also by Amit Segal) showing Bennett and Eisenkot tied at 20 seats, with Bennett losing his solo lead for the first time. That followed a Channel 14 poll at 19:45 (by analyst Nadav Eilimelech) that had already shown Eisenkot opening a gap over Bennett. The 21:33 Channel 12 results now confirm that trend, with Eisenkot matching Bennett as Likud slides. Earlier in the evening, an i24 poll at 21:29 showed a dramatically different rightward configuration (Likud 30, Bennett 12, Eisenkot 17); the desk treats the two sets of results as not directly comparable due to likely methodological variance.

As The Zioneer reported at 21:14, the Channel 14 poll attributed Bennett's loss of lead and Netanyahu's erosion to public dissatisfaction with the security situation. The i24 survey, reported at 21:29, depicted a broader rightward shift. The reported possibility of Yaron Zelicha forming a political alliance with Benny Gantz or Dedi Smakhi, which The Zioneer reported at 21:03, remains a separate development thread.

No cross-tabular data from the Channel 12 poll have been released yet, and the desk notes the methodological gap between the i24 and Channel 12 samples, which limits direct cross-comparison.

02 · How it developed

4 developments

  1. Latest

    Likud drops to 22 seats in the latest Channel 12 poll results.

  2. Amit Segal (N12) reports Bennett and Eisenkot are tied at 20 seats.

  3. Poll shows the coalition bloc maintains its strength despite individual party shifts

Related dispatches
03 · Source and signal

Source and signal

  • Internal intake
Desk accountability

This dispatch is published under The Zioneer Intelligence Desk. Raw intake channels remain internal provenance; an external outlet or channel is named only when it materially helps readers evaluate a specific claim.