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Senior Israeli security official: Hezbollah fears Syrian intervention in Lebanon more than IDF

The Zioneer Intelligence Desk
Senior Israeli security official: Hezbollah fears Syrian intervention in Lebanon more than IDF

Primary source Internal intake · 1 reviewed intake signal · Desk window 15:19

TL;DR

A senior Israeli security official says Trump's suggestion that Syria handle Hezbollah taps into the terror group's deepest fear — a Sunni-led ground invasion of its Shia heartland in Lebanon. According to a report by Amit Bochbot (Walla), the official described Hezbollah as "terrified" of a scenario where forces loyal to Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa (al-Julani) enter Lebanon, capture positions, and carry out massacres in Shia villages, similar to attacks against Druze communities on the Syrian Druze mountain. The official said Hezbollah has long organized its forces not only against an IDF flanking maneuver but against this nightmare scenario, and emphasized that Israel opposes such a development.

01 · THE DISPATCH

Amit Bochbot (Walla) reports, subject to military censorship, that Trump's remarks stirred significant tension in Israel's security establishment over freedom of action for the new Syrian regime in Lebanon — directly contradicting the policy of Israel's political echelon and the security establishment's own position.

The core of the assessment, from a senior security official, is that Hezbollah is terrified of a campaign between its forces and al-Sharaa's on the Lebanon-Syria border, one driven by both vengeance and sectarian religious animosity between Sunnis who view Shia as apostates. During the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah fought alongside the Assad regime and Russian forces against al-Julani's fighters. Since Assad's fall, there have been violent clashes, primarily as al-Sharaa's forces expelled Hezbollah from Syria and seized its outposts. Al-Sharaa's men also aim to prevent weapon smuggling from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon.

The official noted that throughout the war, Hezbollah, on advice from Iran's IRGC, divided its forces not only for a scenario against an IDF multi-directional flanking maneuver, but against its nightmare: an invasion by al-Julani's men into Lebanon, capturing territory and perpetrating extreme acts — massacres in Shia villages, similar to those attempted against Druze communities on the Syrian Druze Mountain. It was stressed that such a scenario would change the region's geopolitics and Israel opposes it.

The report adds Israel's concern that giving the new Syrian regime a "one-card" mandate to "handle" Hezbollah risks Syria entering Lebanon to deal with terror cells but not necessarily leaving, creating a different problem for Israel on its northern border. A military source said: "This may develop into another problem that the IDF will have to contend with."

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