The Zioneer's Intelligence Desk assesses that Saudi Arabia is at risk of losing up to 4% of global oil supply capacity within days, amid fears that export reserves at the Red Sea terminal of Yanbu are nearly exhausted following damage to the East-West Pipeline. The assessment follows reports that repairs may take weeks.
The Zioneer Intelligence Desk now assesses that Saudi Arabia could lose up to 4% of global oil export capacity within days, with concerns that the kingdom's export reserves at the Red Sea terminal of Yanbu are nearly exhausted following damage to the strategic East-West Pipeline.
On Sunday, Sep 13, at 15:22 Jerusalem, The Zioneer first reported, citing Reuters, that Saudi crude oil export reserves at Yanbu were sufficient for only five to seven more days at current rates, and that repairs to the damaged East-West Pipeline could take five to six weeks—threatening to remove up to 4 million barrels per day (about 4% of global supply) from world markets. Later that same hour, Reuters reported that the pipeline would remain largely out of service for three to five weeks after a drone strike from Iraq damaged a central pumping station, though partial operation may be possible. The Zioneer also published an exclusive image confirming physical damage to the pipeline following the Shiite militia attacks.
As previously reported by The Zioneer, the East-West Pipeline is a critical alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz. In a September 12 analysis, The Zioneer noted that Saudi Arabia had shifted from defensive interceptions to targeted eliminations of senior militia figures in Iraq following earlier provocations. The cumulative impact of recent strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure—including the shutdown of the Jazan refinery after a Houthi strike in July, as reported by The Zioneer on July 28—has intensified global supply concerns.
The precise timeline for pipeline repairs remains unconfirmed, and it is unclear whether partial capacity can offset the export shortfall. The Zioneer continues to track developments.
5 developments
- StrongYanbu port halts loading after pipeline damage; Saudi Arabia cancels crude shipments to Europe
- StrongAsian oil companies reroute tankers from Saudi Yanbu port after Houthi blockade threats
- StrongSix Explosions Reported Near Oil and Gas Facilities in Eastern Saudi Arabia
- StrongSatellite imagery shows Iran damaged Kuwait's oil collection center, exports limited for months
Source and signal
- Open-source intake