Russia
Russia is a global power whose strategic alignment with Iran and ongoing invasion of Ukraine significantly impact Israeli security and Middle Eastern stability.
The Russian Federation, under Vladimir Putin, remains a pivotal actor in the geopolitical landscape affecting Israel. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia's relationship with the West has deteriorated, leading Moscow to deepen its military and strategic ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran. This partnership has manifested in the exchange of advanced weaponry and intelligence. Recent reports indicate that Russia is providing Iran with satellite and electronic intelligence to assist in its confrontation against the United States, potentially enhancing Tehran's ability to target American forces and disrupt Western weapons systems. Furthermore, Russia has begun supplying Iran with drone components, ammunition, and TNT explosives via the Caspian Sea to replenish stocks depleted by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. For Israel, Russia's presence in Syria necessitates a complex deconfliction mechanism to allow IDF operations against Iranian entrenchment while avoiding direct friction with Russian forces.
In the Ukrainian theater, Russia has intensified its aerial campaign, launching massive strikes involving hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against Kyiv and other urban centers. In August 2026, a single barrage saw 25 ballistic missiles strike Kyiv in under an hour. Concurrently, Russian ground forces have made tactical gains in the Donbas region, capturing the strategic city of Chasiv Yar and advancing into Mykolaivka. Moscow has also expanded its military coalition, reportedly deploying a North Korean missile unit of 90 fighters to Voronezh to operate ballistic missile systems against Ukraine. Domestically, Russia faces internal security challenges and increasing Ukrainian reach, with Kyiv launching hundreds of drones toward Moscow. The deepening Russia-Iran axis, coupled with Moscow's hardening rhetoric against Jerusalem, represents a significant shift in the global balance of power, complicating the security calculus across multiple fronts.