Netanyahu Orders IDF Chief to Draft Beirut-Option Response Plan as Ceasefire Framework Frays

What happened at the cabinet meeting

At Thursday evening's cabinet session, Government Secretary Yossi Fuchs briefed ministers on the terms of the current ceasefire framework. According to material reviewed by The Zioneer Intelligence Desk, a long line of ministers then told Netanyahu that the restrictions on IDF action in Lebanon are no longer acceptable. Ministers pointed specifically to an ultimatum Netanyahu had issued the previous week — warning that Israel would strike terror targets in Beirut if Hezbollah did not stop attacking Israeli cities and civilians — an ultimatum that was not carried out. Netanyahu reportedly told ministers that once the plan is presented to him, he will decide whether to approve it.

The ceasefire framework: effectively lapsed?

The briefing to ministers included a significant legal and operational point: the current ceasefire framework may not be in force at all. Its foundational condition required that approximately 2,300 Hezbollah operatives south of the Litani River — the boundary line referenced in the agreement — withdraw north of it. That withdrawal has not occurred and is not expected to occur. According to material reviewed by The Zioneer Intelligence Desk, ministers were told this means Israel has near-complete operational freedom to act.

The Litani River, for context, runs roughly 30 kilometers north of the Israeli border. The November 2024 ceasefire agreement required Hezbollah to keep its forces north of that line as a condition of the truce. The current framework is described as an improvement on that agreement in two additional respects: Israel no longer needs to go through a U.S.-led coordination mechanism before acting against emerging threats, and the "yellow line" — the geographic boundary of permitted IDF operations — has been moved further north, significantly expanding the operational zone.

In principle, the parties also agreed that if Hezbollah fires into Israeli territory, action in Beirut becomes permissible. The operative question, as of this writing, is whether Israel will act on that agreed principle.

The Trump factor

Netanyahu's calculus is complicated by Washington. According to material reviewed by The Zioneer Intelligence Desk, his statement to former President Trump — that Israel would strike Beirut if Hezbollah continued attacking — provoked Trump's anger. Ministers came away with the impression that Trump's specific objection is to high-visibility airstrikes that bring down buildings; he is described as less opposed to lower-profile operations, even within Beirut. Last week, the Israeli Air Force eliminated a Hezbollah operative on a road leading into Beirut — a strike that fits the lower-visibility profile.

Netanyahu himself signaled ambivalence on Thursday when he met with northern community leaders. "The struggle is conducted while navigating at the global level. You need to insist on things intelligently and be flexible where possible," he told them — language that, according to material reviewed by The Zioneer Intelligence Desk, was read by some as a hint that he is inclined not to follow through on the ultimatum, despite the costs of that choice.

What is confirmed, what is not

Confirmed: Netanyahu directed Zamir to draft the plan; the cabinet session took place; ministers expressed opposition to current restrictions. Reported but not independently verified: the specific terms of the ceasefire framework as presented to ministers; the content of Netanyahu's conversation with Trump; the precise nature of Trump's objections. No decision to strike Beirut has been announced. This story is developing.