Journalist Amit Segal reports that 68% of Polimarket wagers predict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be replaced, and that Gadi Eisenkot has overtaken Netanyahu in the platform's betting odds. The data reflects a shift in political expectations, Segal says.
Amit Segal (N12) reports that Polimarket, a prediction-market platform, now shows 68% of bets placed on the question of Netanyahu's political future expect him to be replaced. Segal notes that former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot has overtaken Netanyahu in the platform's odds. The bulletin follows two prior Zioneer reports: on Jun 12 at 09:41, Segal detailed how Netanyahu adviser Yonatan Urich's social-media attacks have shifted from targeting Naftali Bennett to targeting Eisenkot — a sign, Segal argued, that Likud views Eisenkot as a rising threat. Later that day at 10:18, columnist Ariel Kahana (Israel Hayom) projected that once Eisenkot matches Bennett in polls, a large swing toward the former chief would put him ahead of Likud. The Polimarket figure adds a quantitative dimension: the betting public, not just analysts, now expects a change at the top. No further polling details or time frames for a transition were reported by Segal.
3 developments
- DevelopingIsrael Hayom columnist: Eisenkot poised to leap ahead of Likud if he matches Bennett
- StrongN12 poll: Eisenkot ties Bennett, both at 20 seats; Likud drops to 22
- DevelopingGadi Eisenkot hints he would partner with Netanyahu
- DevelopingAmit Segal: Netanyahu aide Yonatan Urich's anti-Bennett posts shift to targeting Eisenkot
Source and signal
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