Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a former senior IDF intelligence officer and senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs, assesses that about half of Lebanon's political and sectarian system rejects the framework deal, giving it little realistic chance of implementation. He warns Hezbollah intends to fight the Lebanese government over the agreement and may try to bring down the cabinet, raising the risk of internal conflict.
Two senior researchers from the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs published separate assessments Monday afternoon expressing deep skepticism about the U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a former senior IDF intelligence official, argues that approximately half of Lebanon's political and sectarian system — including Shia, Sunni, Christian, and Druze factions — opposes the agreement, making its implementation highly unlikely. He quotes Lebanese expressions calling the deal's prospects as likely as "a chicken growing teeth" or "a cow laying eggs." Neriah warns that Hezbollah, which has already rejected the accord, intends to fight the Lebanese government over it and may attempt to bring down the cabinet, describing the possibility that "we may wake up to a reality where a different flag flies over Lebanon instead of the Lebanese flag."
Separately, Dr. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center, assesses that the memorandum of understanding does not end the confrontation with Iran but grants Israel operational space to continue enforcing security in southern Lebanon. He describes the struggle against Iran as a long-term campaign guided by principles of strategic patience, escalation, and deterrence, adding that despite Israeli and American military achievements, "Iran has not been defeated," and the campaign is expected to continue.
As The Zioneer reported earlier Monday, the IDF has also questioned the feasibility of implementing the framework agreement, citing concerns over the Hezbollah disarmament timeline. A prior bulletin noted that military analyst Noam Amir warned the accord leaves Hezbollah free to rebuild beyond the security zone. Hezbollah has publicly demanded the deal be scrapped, calling it unilateral concessions.
2 developments
- DevelopingIsraeli analysts: Lebanon deal sends strong signal, Hezbollah 'furious'
- StrongIsrael-Lebanon agreement leaves Hezbollah able to rebuild beyond security zone, analyst warns
- DevelopingLebanese sources fear emerging deal will entrench Hezbollah's power
- DevelopingIsrael assesses Iran and Hezbollah will try to sabotage Israel-Lebanon agreement
Source and signal
- Internal intake