Two senior analysts from the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs assess that Hezbollah's opposition and the Lebanese state's inability to confront the group make the U.S.-brokered framework agreement unlikely to be realized. Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah says the deal risks remaining a 'diplomatic plan' unless the international community neutralizes Hezbollah's veto without triggering a civil war.
Two analysts from the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs published independent assessments Monday morning, casting deep doubt on the viability of the U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a former senior IDF intelligence officer, argues that roughly half of Lebanon's political and sectarian system — including Shia, Sunni, Christian, and Druze factions — opposes the deal. Neriah warns that Hezbollah has already rejected the agreement and will try to fight the Lebanese government and even topple it. "Unless the international community finds a way to neutralize Hezbollah's political and military veto without dismantling Lebanon from within, the agreement is expected to remain a diplomatic plan and not become reality on the ground," he said.
Dr. Dan Diker, president of the center, adds a broader regional perspective, arguing that the memorandum of understanding with Lebanon does not end the confrontation with Iran. Diker says the struggle is a long one against a regime that operates on principles of strategic patience, escalation, and deterrence. Despite Israeli and U.S. military achievements, he states, "Iran has not been defeated," and the campaign is expected to continue. Diker also notes that U.S. President Trump is under political pressure ahead of midterm elections but assesses he will not appear weak and would resume military force against Iran if needed.
As The Zioneer reported on Monday morning, the IDF has also questioned the agreement's implementation, saying no withdrawal orders have been received and expressing concerns over the Hezbollah disarmament timeline.
2 developments
- DevelopingIsraeli analysts: Lebanon deal sends strong signal, Hezbollah 'furious'
- StrongIsrael-Lebanon agreement leaves Hezbollah able to rebuild beyond security zone, analyst warns
- DevelopingLebanese sources fear emerging deal will entrench Hezbollah's power
- DevelopingIsrael assesses Iran and Hezbollah will try to sabotage Israel-Lebanon agreement
Source and signal
A single-sourced dispatch is never rated Confirmed or Strong. Its Signal strengthens only when a second, independent source corroborates it.
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