Senior researcher Yoni Ben Menachem assesses that Hezbollah and Iran will work to sabotage the U.S.-brokered framework deal between Israel and Lebanon, viewing it as a strategic blow to Tehran that strengthens Lebanese sovereignty. The analyst says the real test is whether the Lebanese army will for the first time confront Hezbollah, dismantle its infrastructure, and push it away from southern Lebanon.
Senior researcher Yoni Ben Menachem, a Middle East expert at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs, published an assessment Tuesday evening warning that Iran and Hezbollah will seek to obstruct the implementation of the trilateral framework agreement signed between Israel, Lebanon, and the United States in Washington last week.
Ben Menachem describes the agreement as a diplomatic setback for Tehran, arguing that it undermines Iran's 'unity of fronts' strategy by strengthening the Lebanese state's sovereignty at Hezbollah's expense. He characterizes the coming period as the 'real test' — whether the Lebanese Armed Forces will, for the first time, actively move against Hezbollah south of the Litani River, dismantle its military infrastructure, and enforce a monopoly on arms.
According to Ben Menachem, Israel will maintain its security zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah's disarmament is completed. However, the assessment warns that both Hezbollah and Iran have a clear interest in sabotaging the agreement's implementation and preserving their influence inside Lebanon. The analysis comes as the Daily Alert newsletter from JCFA also reported that the IDF destroyed an underground Hezbollah compound used as a drone base, and noted continued U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.
2 developments
- StrongHezbollah deal opposition risks stalling Israel-Lebanon framework, analyst warns
- DevelopingBen-Menachem: Hezbollah sees existential threat from Lebanon deal, may resort to suicide bombings
- StrongAnalyst: Iran links Lebanon-Hezbollah file to broader US nuclear talks
- DevelopingIran uses Hezbollah to drive wedge between US and Israel, analysts warn
Source and signal
- Internal intake