Two published analyses from the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs argue that Iran is leveraging Hezbollah to undermine US-Israel relations as diplomatic talks progress. Yoni Ben Menachem writes that Tehran does not see the MOU as the end of the confrontation but as the start of a new phase in shaping the Middle East, and brandishes the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb when facing obstacles. Aviram Belaish adds that a ceasefire that does not neutralize Hezbollah risks giving Iran a window to rebuild its primary regional lever of influence.
Two analyses by researchers at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs, published Tuesday morning, offer a coherent assessment of Iran's strategy toward the emerging US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding.
Yoni Ben Menachem writes that Tehran views the MOU not as the end of the confrontation but as the beginning of a new phase in the struggle over the shape of the Middle East. According to his assessment, Iran is trying to use Hezbollah to destabilize the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, while simultaneously imposing on Washington its concept of 'unity of arenas' linking Iran, Lebanon, and Hezbollah. Ben Menachem notes that when Iran faces obstacles, it brandishes the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
Aviram Belaish, vice president of the center, argues that Hezbollah remains Iran's central arm in the Middle East, and any agreement that does not weaken it in practice gives Tehran an opportunity to rebuild its most important influence mechanism in the region. 'A ceasefire that does not deal with Hezbollah does not stop the next war; it allows Iran to rebuild the tool designed to wage it,' he writes. Belaish adds that the correct framing today is 'Israel and Lebanon against Iran operating through Hezbollah' — not Israel against Hezbollah alone.
These perspectives align with earlier analyses The Zioneer has reported: on June 14, analyst Chananel Aviv assessed that Hezbollah, under Iranian direction, was exploiting the emerging understandings to breach the deterrence equation; and on June 10, Ben Menachem himself had told Israel Hayom that Iran was linking the Lebanon-Hezbollah file to the broader nuclear talks. The new analyses add a sharper focus on the wedge-driving component and the risk of a Hezbollah recovery under a ceasefire.
- DevelopingDr. Dan Diker warns Iran seeks wedge between Israel and US amid MOU talks
- StrongAnalyst: Iran deploys 'new equation' combining Hezbollah attrition with economic pressure on global energy
- DevelopingAnalyst: Hezbollah emboldened by Iran to breach deterrence equation ahead of US deal
- DevelopingAnalyst: Iran squeezes negotiations to the brink, using Hezbollah to pressure IDF in southern Lebanon
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