N12 commentators on Tuesday analyzed the latest edition's poll showing the Winter party crossing the electoral threshold, while cautioning that sustaining momentum remains a challenge, according to the channel.
N12 commentators on Tuesday analyzed the latest edition's poll showing the Winter party crossing the 3.25% electoral threshold, cautioning that sustaining the party's current momentum remains an uphill challenge, according to the channel. The analysis came a day after N12's Monday evening poll — first reported by The Zioneer — confirmed the Winter party's rise above the threshold while Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party fell below it.
The Zioneer Intelligence Desk had predicted the same scenario in an analysis published at 21:06 Monday, minutes before the poll aired. That analysis projected that Winter's entry would shift the bloc map, bringing opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to 61 seats. The N12 poll then corroborated the crossing, and Tuesday's commentary from the station's own analysts offered a more nuanced look at the party's prospects, emphasizing that support near the threshold is highly volatile.
The development is the latest in a series of electoral surveys tracking new parties hovering near the threshold. As The Zioneer reported, Naftali Bennett's party crossed the threshold in a late July poll, while a joint list of Tropper and Hendel passed the mark in early August. On Monday evening, hours before the N12 poll aired, Channel 14 broadcast a segment titled "Dangerous Game" examining how Prime Minister Netanyahu is pressuring parties near the threshold — a dynamic that the N12 commentators' caution about sustaining momentum may reflect.
The N12 commentators did not specify what the Winter party would need to do to hold onto its support, and the party's political orientation and platform have not been detailed. The uncertainty inherent in voting behavior near the threshold means that today's crossing does not guarantee future mandate count.
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