A new N12 poll broadcast Monday evening shows the Winter party crossing the 3.25% electoral threshold, pushing Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party below it, according to the survey. The result comes minutes after a Zioneer Intelligence Desk analysis predicted the same scenario.
A new N12 poll broadcast Monday evening confirms that the Winter party has crossed the 3.25% electoral threshold, while Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party falls below it, according to the survey. The result arrives minutes after The Zioneer Intelligence Desk analysis, published at 21:06 Jerusalem, projected that a Winter party crossing the threshold would weaken the Netanyahu-led coalition and push Smotrich beneath the cutoff.
The Zioneer's analysis, published at 21:06 Monday, was the first to outline the scenario of Winter's entry pushing Religious Zionism below the threshold. The N12 poll now validates that projection, marking a tangible shift in the electoral map.
The development comes amid a broader shift in the political landscape, as The Zioneer has reported over recent weeks. A Channel 14 poll on Tue Aug 18 showed the right-wing bloc at 63 seats and Naftali Bennett's party falling to 6. Earlier, on Mon Jul 27, Bennett's party was shown crossing the threshold, and on Sun Jul 26, it was nearing the threshold. Another N12 poll on Mon Aug 10 showed Bennett overtaking Prime Minister Netanyahu in suitability. The Winter party's sudden entry adds a new variable, potentially fragmenting the right-wing vote further.
The N12 poll's full seat distribution has not been detailed in the initial broadcast, so the precise impact on the coalition and opposition blocs, beyond Winter crossing and Smotrich dipping below, remains to be seen. Further analysis is expected.
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