Analysis: Trump's Renewed Push for F-35 Sale to Turkey Threatens Israel's Air Supremacy

The potential return of Turkey to the F-35 program, ordered for review by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, represents a significant shift in regional power dynamics. While Turkey was previously removed from the program due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, the current U.S. administration appears willing to bypass previous congressional opposition to restore defense ties with Ankara.

Strategic and Regional Risks

Israeli analysts note that the threat is more acute now than in previous years due to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's escalating anti-Israel rhetoric. Furthermore, Turkey is actively promoting the "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine, which asserts maritime rights over vast areas of the Mediterranean, including Greek islands and the planned route for Israel's underwater electricity cable to Europe. While the Israeli Navy is built for defense, the IAF has traditionally secured regional dominance; the introduction of 5th-generation stealth fighters to the Turkish Air Force would significantly erode this total air superiority.

Technology Leakage Concerns

A primary concern remains the risk of technology leakage. Even if the U.S. restricts advanced avionics, the F-35's stealth capabilities—derived from its physical design and materials—would remain intact. This could allow Turkish aircraft to approach Israeli shores with reduced detection ranges. Analysts also warn that sensitive data could leak from Turkey to Russia, especially if the S-400 remains in place, and potentially reach Iran or China. Such a development would allow adversarial regimes to "train" their defense systems against the F-35, undermining the primary strategic asset of both the U.S. and Israel.