An Israeli commentator warns that President Trump's reported intention to sell F-35 stealth fighters to Ankara is more dangerous than previous iterations, citing Erdogan's escalating anti-Israel rhetoric, Turkey's naval doctrine, and risks of technology leakage to Russia and Iran. The Israeli Air Force would likely retain regional dominance, but its near-total air superiority would be eroded.
A detailed Israeli assessment published Thursday afternoon warns that the Trump administration's renewed signal of selling F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey constitutes a more severe strategic threat to Israel than earlier iterations, citing eight specific risk factors.
The analysis, published in Hebrew, argues that President Erdogan's anti-Israel rhetoric has intensified as he perceives Israeli diplomatic weakness following the erosion of Trump's backing. It notes that Turkey's naval fleet — already larger than Israel's compact, primarily defensive navy — would gain a qualitative leap through 5th-generation stealth aircraft, narrowing Israel's compensating air superiority in the Eastern Mediterranean.
A central concern involves Turkey's 'Blue Homeland' (Mavi Vatan) doctrine, which Erdogan is currently seeking to enshrine in law. The doctrine claims Turkish national and economic rights over 462,000 square kilometers in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean — including 152 Greek islands and the planned route for an undersea power cable connecting Israel to Europe's grid.
Even if advanced avionics are restricted, the F-35's stealth capability — derived from its shape and materials — would remain intact, potentially allowing Turkish aircraft to approach within tens of kilometers of Israel's coast before detection by standard radars. The analysis further warns that sensitive technology could leak to Qatar, Russia, and China. The risk to Russia is deemed especially high while Turkey operates the S-400 air defense system, which could be 'trained' against the F-35 — knowledge likely to reach Iran.
The piece concludes that while the Israeli Air Force would probably retain regional dominance, the near-total air superiority it currently enjoys would be eroded. It raises the question: if Turkey receives F-35s, why not Saudi Arabia or even Qatar, whose foreign minister recently floated a defense agreement with Iran?
This assessment follows a series of Thursday developments: Vice President Vance confirming the U.S. may sell F-35s to Turkey pending legal review; the Wall Street Journal reporting a planned $750 million engine sale bypassing Congress; and President Trump saying he will likely approve both sales, calling Ankara a 'strong' NATO member. Mark Levin has urged Trump to halt F-35 transfers, describing Erdogan as a 'crazy Islamist.'
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