Captured Hamas Files: Sinwar Expected Full Hezbollah Invasion on October 7

The captured files provide a rare window into the strategic expectations of Hamas leadership prior to the 2023 assault. According to the documents, Yahya Sinwar operated under the assumption that Hezbollah would fully commit its forces to a multi-front invasion, specifically expecting the Radwan Force to breach the northern border and seize territory in the Galilee simultaneously with the Hamas assault from Gaza.

Strategic Coordination and the Beirut War Room

The documents detail a sophisticated level of cooperation within the "Axis of Resistance." This included a joint intelligence war room established in Beirut, where representatives from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian IRGC reportedly shared information and synchronized plans. This coordination was not a recent development but the result of years of alignment aimed at a coordinated strike against Israel. Prior reports from The Zioneer archive (https://thezioneer.com/en/article/report-documents-reveal-hamas-hezbollah-coordination-ahead-of-october-7-attack-e460a4e9) have previously noted these deepening ties, but the new files offer more specific evidence of the intended scale of the northern front.

The Miscalculation

Despite the extensive planning, the documents suggest a moment of realization for Sinwar. As the events of October 7 unfolded, it became clear that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was not fully committing his forces to the planned invasion. While Hezbollah began a campaign of attrition on October 8, the full-scale ground assault on the Galilee that Sinwar had envisioned did not materialize. This discrepancy highlights a potential gap between Hamas's expectations and Hezbollah's strategic caution at the time of the initial massacre.

Regional Implications

These revelations underscore the persistent threat posed by the Radwan Force and the long-term intent of the Iranian-led axis to conduct ground incursions into Israeli sovereign territory. For Israeli security planners, the documents confirm that the threat of a multi-front invasion was a concrete operational goal for the enemy, rather than a theoretical scenario. The Zioneer Intelligence Desk will continue to monitor further disclosures from the captured material as they are cleared for publication.