Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and a former IDF intelligence official, argues that Israel's military campaign in Lebanon has become hostage to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. He warns that even expanding the operation will not bring a strategic decision and calls for a new political and security strategy.
In a statement circulated Sunday afternoon, Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah — a former senior officer in IDF Military Intelligence (Aman) and now a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs — argued that Israel is caught in a strategic trap in Lebanon. According to Neriah, the military campaign against Hezbollah has become a hostage of the broader crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is leveraging threats to global energy routes to pressure the Trump administration. Washington, in turn, is pressing Jerusalem to scale back its operations against the Lebanese terror group.
“We thought we were laying a trap for Hezbollah, but in the end we got caught in the same net,” Neriah said. He added that even an expansion of IDF operations, up to and including an advance on Beirut, would not produce a strategic decision. Neriah argued that Hezbollah is deliberately trying to draw Israel into an escalation that would trigger renewed American pressure on Jerusalem, and that a sustainable outcome must involve the Lebanese government and continued political negotiations.
The remarks come as the IDF maintains a high-intensity ground and air campaign in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah infrastructure. The Zioneer has previously reported on growing US pressure on Israel to end the Lebanon campaign as part of a framework deal with Iran, including reported Trump administration demands for a ceasefire. Neriah's assessment — from a former senior intelligence officer — reflects a growing internal Israeli debate over the strategic viability of the military approach.
The assessment is an opinion piece, not an official government or military statement.
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