A Gulf source told CNN on Wednesday there is a 50/50 chance of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Friday, according to a report cited by Israeli media. The source cited the absence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) hardline faction from the negotiations as a key obstacle, noting the hardliners must still approve any agreement.
A Gulf source told CNN on Wednesday that there is a 50/50 chance of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz being signed by Friday, according to a report cited by Israeli media. The source identified the absence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) hardline faction from the negotiating team as a key obstacle, noting that the hardliners must still approve any agreement.
The assessment comes as competing signals emerge from the region. Earlier Wednesday, The Zioneer reported a similar Gulf source assessment indicating a 50/50 chance, while a Reuters report citing senior Iranian sources said a deal is not imminent and that a single tweet from President Trump could derail the process. The IRGC's hardline wing has previously expressed opposition to diplomatic tracks, viewing them as strategic disadvantages.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to Israel-linked vessels since June, and the IRGC has repeatedly threatened to keep the waterway shut. Previous diplomatic efforts, including a proposed compromise routing inbound vessels through Iranian waters and outbound through Omani waters, have stalled over the IRGC's refusal to consent. The hardline faction's absence from the current talks underscores the internal divide between Iran's diplomatic establishment and the paramilitary force that controls the strait operationally.
2 developments
- StrongIranian source: Strait of Hormuz reopening to begin Friday after MoU signing
- DevelopingAnalyst: Odds of Iran opening Hormuz immediately upon deal signing 'near zero'
- StrongReuters: Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz not expected soon, despite Trump's optimism
- StrongNYT: Strait of Hormuz negotiations advancing, per US and Qatari sources
Source and signal
- Open-source intake