An Iranian opposition channel argues that President Trump's limited, measured strikes against Iran are acting as a 'vaccine' — allowing the regime to adapt and build resilience rather than forcing capitulation. The analysis warns that the U.S. is repeating historical mistakes by trusting Iranian 'reformists'.
An Iranian opposition channel published a detailed analysis Thursday evening arguing that President Trump's strategy of calibrated, 'half-strength' military strikes against Iran is counterproductive. The channel likens the approach to a vaccine — a weakened virus that trains the immune system to adapt, rather than a decisive blow that destroys the threat.
The analysis cites several examples: the 12-day war gave the regime time to prepare for closing the Strait of Hormuz; the 40-day war allowed Tehran to prepare the Houthis for closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait. U.S. strikes on southern Iran and on Iranian ports, the channel argues, were not decisive enough to destroy target sets and instead forced the regime to establish alternative supply routes through Pakistan and neighboring countries.
'When the U.S. carries out measured strikes instead of crushing blows, it only raises the regime's resilience threshold,' the channel writes. The analysis also warns against trusting Iranian 'reformists,' recalling the Carter administration's experience with Prime Minister Bazargan — which ended with the U.S. Embassy seizure — and the Obama administration's trust in President Rouhani, which it says led to sanctions relief funding the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas, and the acceleration of Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
As The Zioneer has reported, Trump has pursued a dual-track approach of military pressure and diplomacy. However, this analysis from an Iranian opposition source suggests that the calibrated strikes may be strengthening the regime's ability to withstand pressure rather than compelling it to negotiate.
- DevelopingIranian opposition journalist: Trump's canceled strike is a ruse, attack certain
- DevelopingMaariv opinion piece argues Trump's Iran strikes are a tactical prelude
- StrongAnalyst: US strikes on Iran failing to force surrender, Tehran retaliates against Gulf allies
- DevelopingIran-aligned outlet warns Trump infrastructure strikes could cripple region, including Israel
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