Former INSS Chief: US-Iran MOU is a 'Lifeline' for Tehran, Strategic Trap for Israel

In his first public assessment of the diplomatic framework, Heyman argued that the agreement falls far short of securing the security requirements Israel has sought throughout the current multi-front conflict. Writing on X (formerly Twitter), the former intelligence chief asserted that had Israel known the war would culminate in such an arrangement, it might have been better not to initiate the campaign at all. According to Heyman, the MOU effectively ensures the survival of the Iranian regime at a moment of potential vulnerability.

Strategic Concessions and Regional Control

Heyman highlighted several specific provisions of the emerging deal that he views as detrimental to Israeli and regional security. He noted that the agreement grants Iran shared control authority over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman, a move that formalizes Tehran's influence over one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Furthermore, the former INSS chief warned that the deal provides a "generous economic lifeline" to the regime, likely referring to the release of frozen assets and sanctions relief discussed in previous reports regarding the 'Islamabad Agreement' framework.

The Lebanon Front and 'Unity of Arenas'

Perhaps most concerning for Jerusalem is Heyman's claim that the MOU grants Iran enforcement powers over a future ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This development would effectively institutionalize Iran's role as a primary arbiter in Lebanese security affairs, validating the "unity of arenas" strategy pursued by Tehran and its proxies. By placing the Islamic Republic in a position to oversee the cessation of hostilities, the deal may constrain the IDF's freedom of action and leave northern Israel's security dependent on Iranian compliance.

Outlook for Jerusalem

Heyman's critique aligns with growing skepticism among Israeli security analysts who fear the deal prioritizes short-term regional stability over the long-term dismantling of Iran's nuclear and proxy threats. As the diplomatic process nears a potential resolution, the assessment from a former top intelligence official underscores the widening gap between Washington's diplomatic trajectory and Jerusalem's security red lines.