An Israeli assessment warns that Hezbollah will try to challenge the ceasefire with attacks on Israeli territory and IDF troops in southern Lebanon before the expected signing of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding, according to a report by Amit Segal (i24NEWS). The assessment describes a series of probes—possibly already begun over the weekend—designed to force Israel into an escalation dilemma: whether to strike Beirut or launch a wide operation. Over the weekend two Hezbollah drones struck inside Israeli territory, one in a military area and one near the border.
The assessment, reported by Amit Segal (i24NEWS) on Saturday evening, outlines an Israeli intelligence estimate that Hezbollah will exploit the window before a US-Iran deal is signed to mount operations against Israel. The intended effect, according to the report, is to present Israel with a dilemma: escalate with a strike on Beirut or a broad ground operation, or absorb limited attacks without a major response—potentially harming deterrence.
Over the weekend, the report notes, two Hezbollah drones struck inside Israeli territory—one in a military zone, another near the border—which it describes as the first such incidents since the brief round of hostilities with Iran earlier this week. As The Zioneer reported, those drone intrusions were the first of their kind since the Iran round, and Israel had previously vowed to strike the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut over such breaches, though the emerging US-Iran deal now casts uncertainty over that pledge.
The report does not specify a timetable or the exact scale of the anticipated Hezbollah activity beyond the drones already recorded. A separate telegram post attributed to an unverified source claimed Israel assesses Hezbollah will fire 'dozens of missiles,' but that detail has no sourcing from the recognized i24NEWS report and is not included in the verified assessment.
4 developments
- DevelopingAnalyst: Hezbollah emboldened by Iran to breach deterrence equation ahead of US deal
- DevelopingHezbollah fires again at Israel, mocking 'Dahieh equation' — analyst assesses
- DevelopingIran reportedly orders Hezbollah to refrain from rocket fire on Israel, threatens severe measures
- DevelopingAnalyst: Hezbollah could fire rockets to trigger alarms without crossing border, avoiding Beirut retaliation
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