An Israeli assessment warns that Hezbollah will attempt to challenge the ceasefire with Israel ahead of the expected signing of a US-Iran deal, according to a report by Moriah Asraf (i24NEWS). The assessment points to a series of probes — possibly beginning over the weekend — designed to force Israel into an escalation dilemma: whether to strike Beirut or launch a wide operation in response to Hezbollah activity near the border. Over the weekend, two Hezbollah drones crossed into Israeli territory, hitting one military area and one area near the border.
At 20:49 Jerusalem, The Zioneer reported that two Hezbollah drones crossed into Israeli territory — the first such intrusion since the brief exchange with Iran earlier in the week — and that an Israeli assessment, reported by Amit Segal (N12), warned Hezbollah would test the ceasefire before the US-Iran deal was signed. Within minutes, a version 2 of the bulletin added a second source, Moriah Asraf (N13 / Army Radio), and specified that the drones struck one military area and one area near the border, part of a deliberate pattern of probes to force Israel into a dilemma: whether to respond narrowly, possibly with a strike on Beirut, or to escalate broadly. An earlier The Zioneer context item, published at 15:04 Jerusalem, noted the IDF had struck more than 70 Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon over the past day.
As of 20:56 Jerusalem, the assessment remains that these probes will continue ahead of the deal signing. The timing of the launch of the drones and any Israeli response have not been officially detailed.
Background, as The Zioneer reported on June 12 at 13:22 Jerusalem and June 10 at 19:24 Jerusalem, the IDF has maintained a sustained campaign of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. A separate Jun 6 bulletin described the weekend before the current events, with 150 Hezbollah targets struck and drone incidents that wounded officers.
It remains open whether the drone intrusions have prompted an Israeli response, and how immediate a threat to the ceasefire these probes pose.
4 developments
- DevelopingAnalyst: Hezbollah emboldened by Iran to breach deterrence equation ahead of US deal
- DevelopingHezbollah fires again at Israel, mocking 'Dahieh equation' — analyst assesses
- DevelopingIran reportedly orders Hezbollah to refrain from rocket fire on Israel, threatens severe measures
- DevelopingAnalyst: Hezbollah could fire rockets to trigger alarms without crossing border, avoiding Beirut retaliation
Source and signal
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